Is Climate Predictable?

Climate refers to the mean of weather variables over a long period. Aside from weather variables, climate also encompasses the average behavior of the ocean, land, ice masses, atmosphere, and biosphere over a long period. Since climate is very broad, can it be predicted like the weather?

Climate predictions are possible, and they are based on present conditions and assumptions on how physical processes will affect change. Climate prediction is still in its infancy. However, the research and modeling, as well as the investment put in place at various national and international levels have greatly improved projections and predictions.


How is climate predicted?

Prediction of climate is done in two ways: the forecast of natural climate changes, for instance, El Nino, and the effects of human activities on future climate. Mostly, local, regional, and global spatial scales use a 30-year period to average climate predictions. However, other different time scales such as the ones discussed below are also used:

Extended-range forecast: done for a period of beyond 10 days and up to 30 days, this method describes weather parameters that are averaged and expressed as changes in climatic values for that period. They include 10-days to 2-weeks forecasts, and 3-category forecasts of rainfall and temperature (normal, above normal, and below normal).

Long-range forecast: these are done for a period of 30 days to one year. They provide monthly and seasonal outlooks of the deviation, variations, and anomalies in averaged weather parameters.

Inter-annual prediction: this is a prediction done from one to several years. It describes the large-scale climatic state by using the indicators of the current climate to capture the changes in internal climate variability such as ENSO.

Decadal prediction: this is a prediction of changes in the climate system in ten years. It takes into account natural variability and the effect of human activities.


Importance of climate prediction

Accurate climate prediction is done over a long period. Therefore, climatologists must ensure that they use tools like VPN true to ensure that they do not lose the data they collect over time due to cyber-attacks. Climate prediction helps in:

Disaster preparedness

Climate forecasts give advance notices of adverse weather effects, allowing governments to come up with ways to minimize their impact and take advantage of favorable events.

Agricultural management

Climate prediction helps in better management of water supplies, fisheries, and agriculture. Prediction information allows farmers to know which crops are likely to flourish in the predicted seasons, as well as when to apply crop inputs such as fungicides. With accurate predictions, the world can satisfy the growing demand for food due to the population explosion.

 Prediction of economic trends

Climate forecasts are invaluable to the economies that rely on agriculture as it helps the anticipation of fluctuations in GDP, based on the crop production in a predicted season.

With accurate climate prediction, it will be easy for humans to adapt to the changing environment and put in place measures to reverse the effects of climate change.